Consumers respond to discounts. More consumers respond to deeper discounts, and will wait for said discounts to appear.

According to Mastercard SpendingPulse:

* 2024 Nov 1 - Dec 4 sales increased by 3.8% y/y. Online retail sales grew 6.7% year-over-year, while in-store sales rose by 2.9%.

How did this compare to what happened in 2023-> 2022 y/y?

* 2023 sales increased by 3.1% during the same 2023 holiday season (November 1 through December 24). Online retail sales grew by 6.3% year-over-year, while in-store sales rose by 2.2%.

In short, in-store sales growth accelerated faster this holiday season, much more than history would tell us. Some analysts I trusted reported that in-store sales might bump due to the short holiday season. Those predictions turned out to be correct.

When faced with short time, you either go online to the place with fast shipping, or you are motivated to go closer to you.

What the hell happened? A few theories:

* Faced with short time, consumers seemed to follow the selection and the discounts.

* I expect you will start to hear that some stores had trouble keeping items in stock. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Target will likely be on this list.

* Fast shipping counts during the holidays, particularly in a compressed period. Supply chain counts.

* Did I mention supply chain? Accurate inventory on your website showing what's in store also counts during the holiday period. Something to continue to work on for many in 2025.

Lastly, I predict that Amazon, Walmart and Shopify are going to roll this Q4 earnings report. Get ready.