eCommerce Strategy Consultant - Rick Watson - RMW Commerce Consulting

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Walmart Great FY 2025 Earnings: Maytag Repairman Envious of Consistent Performance - Trump Guidance Included

Almost all Walmart's gains are being driven from higher income consumers. These are traditional Amazon-oriented convenience consumers. I tried to separate out the data by section.

Overall:

* Almost all gains due to high income consumer. Adding convenience, improving cost structure, growing higher margin businesses.

* guidance: consistent w/ prior years. each of last 2 years. op income 4-6%. this year 5-7% op income guidance (ex-leap year and vizio). Q1 slower op income growth than sales, but will balance out for the year.

* FY 2026 consolidated sales growth 3-4%, w/ lapping leap year. op income grow faster at 3.5 - 5.5%.

* gen merch: low single digit comp sales growth (hardlines, toys, home, fashion)

* grocery standout: mid single digit growth.

Operating Income:

* new businesses (ads, membership, WFS) providing 50% of op income growth

* membership income grew 21% to 3.8B

Ecom + Ads:

* global ecom penetration is now 18% of sales = 1100 bps higher than FY20

* global ads grew 27% to 4.4B

* 24% WMT US Connect (ads) growth

* 80% improvement in ecom losses in last year ("densification" continues its tour of the lexicon)

* wmt ecom sales up 20% in 4Q

Supply Chain:

* 1-3 hour orders from stores up 80% y/y

* same day store units up 100% to 5B units (now up to 30% of store orders)

* WFS penetration record highs of 50%, up 600bps y/y

* 20% reduction in net US delivery cost per order

* store fulfilled delivery catchment = 93% of households can be reached same day

Marketplace:

* wmt us mkpl grew 37% with 45% of orders fulfilled by WFS

* home, auto, seasonal all up 30+%+

* auto, toys, patio all growing 20%+.

Intl:

* canada ecom performance up 30% in 4Q

* good trends in MX/CA. WFS increased 20%. sales of items w/ WFS grew over 85%

and the section you have been waiting for..

The Trump Effect = Non-Factor:

* No impact to guidance on tariffs.

* No impact expected due to immigration.

* Consistent, resilient consumer

* Still cautious outlook due to uncertainty

Strong to quite strong earnings? Don't over-index your business on tariffs and immigration impacts, so sayeth Walmart.