Was Amazon Haul Launched Sooner As Political Strategy?
What Was Amazon Haul, and When Did We First Hear About It?
As early as June this year, we heard rumblings about a "Low Cost Store" on Amazon. At the time, there was a quote by a seller, BrandsFactory, stating, "It could launch as early as November, but it probably won't fully open until early next year."
At the time, the notion of Amazon launching a major new service in November seemed exceptionally remote. Who launches in the middle of Q4? It takes time to build an initial consumer-ready version of a service at Amazon scale.
What Key Events Led Up to the Launch of Amazon Haul?
A few events intervened:
October 21, 2024: Amazon launched its Holiday Beauty Haul. Perhaps they were soft-launching the "Haul" name to see how consumers responded. Little did we know how quickly more hauls were to come.
November 5, 2024: Trump wins the election, bringing perhaps a more determined anti-China bent, having made public statements about eliminating the de minimis threshold (currently $800), targeting Shein and Temu, revoking China's MFN status, and adding an additional 10% tariff on China.
November 13, 2024: Amazon Launches Its Haul, Its Low Cost Store, in time for BFCM.
Coming from a company whose second headquarters is outside of Washington DC, spent $14.2M on 121 lobbyists this year (via OpenSecrets), and has been constantly targeted by the FTC, the timing does not seem coincidental.
How Is Amazon Haul Positioned in the Market?
What does Haul mean to Amazon?
In my view, Haul is two things:
A hedge against the rise of Temu.
A legitimate growth lever—a way for Amazon to bet on the continued cheap consumer without going "all-in."
Once an offering is launched, Amazon can decide to improve or prioritize its offering more or less over time.
Could the Launch Timing Be Politically Motivated?
For a moment, let's consider the fact that Amazon rushed Amazon Haul forward. What could be the political reason?
In a post-Trump world, any new launch or collaboration with China would be under heightened scrutiny at best or blocked altogether, at worst.
If Haul just looked like "part of Amazon" instead of a "Temu clone," after Temu was shut down, Haul might slip in under the tent unnoticed if Amazon was not forced to break out its success in earnings.
If one wanted to later lobby an administration about the essential nature of a new service, what would one do?
Launch it as soon as possible.
Give it as much exposure as possible.
How Did Amazon Give Haul Maximum Visibility?
Like how? On the homepage of the Amazon app. Which is exactly where Amazon Haul was this Black Friday through Cyber Monday.
As I sit here today, Haul is still on Amazon's App homepage. Which, I'm not saying there's a reason for it. But if there is a reason for it, I would understand.
Is This Amazon Playing Political Chess?
One explanation is that this is Amazon playing political chess. After all, it's much easier for a new administration to block a new launch in isolation than it is to go inside a well-defended company like Amazon and rip out one part of it.
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