Macy's Buyout Offer a Sign of the Department Store Times
Even in a depressed corporate real estate market, when the book value of your real estate is a premium to your firm's overall enterprise value, then investors will circle. Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital are making a $5.8 billion offer to take Macy's private, which was about a 32% premium to the current shares.
Macy's has over 500 stores in the United States, including one of the most iconic and recognizable locations in the United States at Herald Square New York City.
In Macy's case, these types of rumblings happened over the last decade also:
* WWD reports that $6B is a conservative estimate for the real estate now.
* In 2022, investment firm Cowen valued Macy's real estate as $7 billion.
* In 2014, Macy's real estate had a book value of $7.8 billion.
* Even the Herald Square location itself has been valued between $3 and $4 billion, according to some investors.
I'm not a real estate analyst, but Macy's primary business is clearly beaten down.
It reminds me of the movie "Founder" when the financial analyst (played by BJ Novak) tells Ray Kroc you are in the wrong business. "You aren't going to make money on a small profit percentage of a 25-cent hamburger. You are going to make money on the real estate." In this case, you can substitute 25 cent hamburger for discounted apparel.
Perhaps retail isn't what it's cracked up to be for Macy's, and instead, it should allow someone else to operate more profitable businesses on its properties.
Inevitably, such questions come to all companies with a valuable asset trapped inside a company where the rest of the business is viewed as a liability. With investors circling Macy's on and off for the last 10 years whenever the retail sector gets beaten down, they may finally get their prize this time based on the retail department store outlook in the next 5 years.
