January 20th, 2025: Our 2025 NRF event analysis, recapping the first ever RMW Commerce Five Forces event in New York City
Today’s episode of The Watson Weekly Podcast is sponsored by Mirakl
Mirakl is the global leading provider of eCommerce software solutions. Create a value flywheel for your business with AI-powered marketplace and retail media solutions from Mirakl. Over 450 customers across the globe are unlocking new revenue opportunities with Mirakl - what's holding you back?
It’s January 20, 2025 and this is the Watson Weekly - your essential eCommerce Digest!
Today on our show:
Our 2025 NRF Event Analysis
Recapping the First Ever RMW Commerce Five Forces Event In New York City
- and finally, The Investor Minute which contains 5 items this week from the world of venture capital, acquisitions, and IPOs.
==
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
==
[PAUSE]
BUT FIRST in our shopping cart full of news….
2025 NRF Event Analysis
"What is the biggest news at NRF?" Always the biggest question at NRF by the attendees, who are ostensibly there to make news themselves.
Circular isn't it?
I would say Commerce right now is defined by the lack of news. Well, lack of news except:
* Some companies unplatforming, some companies replatforming, and some repositioning. More OMS than you can shake a stick at.
* Marketing orchestration out the wazoo. Does orchestration grow my customer file? Prove this please and thank you.
* B2B commerce platform differentiation becoming murkier by the moment. Vendor service is the key to these transformations. So I have to ask - are companies upping their service levels?
* In-Store cool again. Hello Commercetools to the market. Probably the biggest question that came my way. In the Commercetools booth there seemed to be a recognition that they need to be more "opinionated".
* Shopify is Shopify-ing. As always. 99% percent of the market seems to be avoiding direct competition. Because, well, focus and ROI.
As far as the Shopify competition front, the only person ostensibly even pretending to want to go head on with Shopify, and btw "head on" - get it? .... is Commercetools.
Used to be Commercetools did not want to be in the same room as Shopify. Now they want to be. Or did it happen the other way around? Perhaps they are getting their head screwed on straight.
Speaking of commerce platforms - who is heading Salesforce's now? Asking for a friend.
Another reason I see fewer platforms surviving is that there are still few replatforms. The Great Magento/Salesforce Migration which people speak about like so many stampedes has been a trickle and not a geyser. Expect more of this.
The ones that are replatforming it is because they have to and not because they want to.
Part of the slow migrations? CFOs are rightfully skeptical of platform promises, you know, wanting to keep their jobs and all. "This time surely the vendor's promises must be correct!" - said no CFO ever.
Another hidden reason: payments. It's a complex topic, and across the entire ecosystem no one has a fantastic platform + payment story that does not have at least some orange flags, depending on your segment and contract situation.
The Innovation Lounge is always the most interesting part of any event. New marketing tools to help with targeting, personalization, and attribution. AI without having to say AI. Nick Kaplan and I speak a lot about the value of your trailing twelve month customer file. With reason.
The health - in particular the growth and conversion - of that customer file is a telescope into your future.
Finally, a message for all vendors: Trust. Build it but expect it to take time. Content + Conversations = Relationships. Relationships + Execution = Sales
[References:]
Our Second Story
Recapping the First Ever RMW Commerce Five Forces Event In New York City
I wanted to talk a little bit to our listeners about our journey to doing an in-person event at NRF last week. It’s been a long time coming.
When I started the consulting business I never imagined that I would put on such an event. Just to set the stage we are able to produce over a two hour event at the Ivory Peacock in New York City attended by up to 120 of a list of Who’s Who in eCommerce. As part of this event, not only did I give a 20 minute keynote on the state of eCommerce in 2025, but we also held an interesting panel discussion with two industry experts David Cost VP Digital and eCommerce and Rainbow Shops, and Elara Verret, Chief Digital and Customer Officer at Reitman’s Canada. Finally, we finished up with a live recording of the Watson Weekend podcast hosted by Jess and me, with a special guest of long-time friend Michael Jones, CEO of Candlescience.
We had a number of great sponsors for the event including:
Maze
Ryder
Unknown name
Elastic Path
Bolt
Redvanworkshop
Yotpo
BigCommerce
Daasity
Mirakl
Pipe17
There was also a surprise appearance by Travis Hess CEO of BigCommerce who crashed the stage and asked me some questions as well! That was a lot of fun.
In terms of what we discussed, the topics were wide ranging but we focused the discussion on the Five Forces of eCommerce, which we outlined as follows:
1 - The Cheap Consumer.
2 - Marketing is King and Merchandising is Queen
3 - The Generative Brand
4 - Investor Update
5 - New Brand Playbook
I won’t recap the entire presentation and discussion here, but there are two things that I want you to take away on this podcast.
First, 2025 is shaping up to be a great year. Ecommerce continues to comp higher year over year, and the holiday was a great one for eCommerce. In terms of the consumer, while there is a huge growth on cheap outlets like Temu and Shein, historically the consumer is not as strapped as you might think. Inflation has calmed down, we managed to avoid a recession completely, we are essentially not even in the same ballpark of the same debt delinquency rates we say after the 2008 crisis. The is definitely expecting discounts and value but money continues to be spent on the things they love.
As a result, what I think you will see is 2025 starting off on more of a growth footing than 2024. In 2024, Walmart correctly setup the year where they were going to control what they are going to control, and attempt to grow margin dollars faster than revenue dollars. And that set the tone for the industry.
In 2025, I do think companies will step on the growth gas pedal slightly harder which will mean more investments and projects. Second there are a number of big IPOs that the market is waiting for this year. The biggest is perhaps Klarna followed by Shipbob. It is more likely that Klarna goes public than Shipbob, but we will definitely be watching what happens.
Private Equity has record levels of capital to deploy, and you could see more larger acquisitions this year which will provide more venture fuel to the market overall. The data indicates that early stage venture is still doing great. Later-stage venture is a little tighter mostly due to higher valuations from the ZIRP era that have not all worked their way out of the system.
It does seem like in 2025 and towards the end of 2024 you have seen a lot of acquisitions and mergers. This is really a market cleansing exercise to clean up all those bloated cap tables. Especially if you don’t see a number attached to the transaction.
All in all, more companies will step on the growth gas pedal in 2025 which should be good for the overall ecosystem.
[References:]
It’s That Time Friends, for our Investor Minute. We have 5 items on the menu today.
First
Reshop Raises $17M and Hires Afterpay Co-Founder As CEO
Fintech refunds platform Reshop has announced that it has hired Afterpay co-founder Anthony Eisen as its Chief Executive Officer and has raised $17 million in new funding. Eisen was previously an investor and chairman of the board. Returns are a global e-commerce problem, but refunds via a fintech solution instead of a return are the new gold rush.
Second
eBay Acquires Caramel To Expedite Online Car Sales
eBay has announced its intention to acquire Caramel, an end-to-end solution that expedites the purchase of a vehicle online. The transaction details, such as the acquisition price, have not been disclosed. eBay has until this transaction required the car dealers to process payment and the relevant paperwork. Is it safe to say that eBay now wants to own the final part of the transaction for the selling of a vehicle on its platform?
Third
Supply Chain Risk Management Platform Overhaul Raises $55M In Funding
Supply chain risk management and intelligence platform Overhaul has announced $55 million in new equity funding. The money will be used to invest in its AI technology, hire talent, and make strategic acquisitions. In this highly competitive sector with well-funded competitors, Overhaul is following the private equity model, which involves growth through acquisitions.
Link: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/anthonymlr_logistics-tech-freight-activity-7284569941289152512-rKyF
Fourth
DHL Supply Chain Acquires Returns Solutions Business of Inmar Intelligence
DHL Supply Chain has acquired Inmar Supply Chain Solutions, a division of Inmar Intelligence, for an undisclosed amount. According to the announcement, DHL Supply Chain will become the largest provider of reverse logistics solutions as it will add 14 return centers and around 800 associates to its business. Interestingly, Inmar Intelligence will retain its pharmaceutical reverse distribution business. Inmar has always been one of the most capable under the radar companies in the entire supply chain industry so it’s interesting to see this happen.
AND FINALLY …
Cimulate Raises $28M In Series A Funding
Cimulate, an AI-based search platform, has raised a $28 million Series A funding round that will be invested in its platform. Its CustomerGPT platform utilizes generative AI to offer improved customer experience. It is worth noting that Cimulate founders have domain expertise in predictive analytics and AI as they sold their previous company to Nike.
That’s all for this week! Till next time Watsonians.....
[PAUSE]
Hi, I’m Rick Watson, CEO and Founder of RMW Commerce Consulting and host of the Watson Weekly podcast - your essential eCommerce Digest.
Our production partner for the series is CitizenRacecar. The show is produced by Jose Baez; Production Manager, Gabriela Montequin.
To hear new episodes of the show every Monday morning, subscribe now at rmwcommerce.com/watsonweekly and wherever you get your podcasts.
